KEY FACTORS ANALYSIS IN OPTIMIZING INDONESIAN COCOA EXPORTS

Abstract

Cocoa is one of Indonesia's essential export commodities and is the highest foreign exchange contributor in the plantation sector. Increasing export performance is crucial because it reflects increased competitiveness and the business sector. The increase in cocoa exports is ideally supported by increased domestic cocoa production. However, an increase in cocoa production is not necessarily meaningful if other factors, such as inflation and exchange rate stability, do not complement it. However, inflation and exchange rates in Indonesia are highly volatile. This study aims to analyze the role of inflation and fluctuations in the exchange rate of cocoa exports to optimize cocoa exports in the global market. The analysis method used is the Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. Research findings show that the variable that most affect cocoa exports in the short and long term is the exchange rate. The author's recommendations to achieve cocoa optimization include strengthening exchange rates and exchange rate risk management and changing marketing strategies and partnerships.