LEMENTASI SINGLE MOVING AVERAGE DALAM ANALISIS PERGERAKAN HARGA EMAS

Abstract

Abstract
This research is based on the importance of gold price prediction as one of the commodities that has high volatility.
The problem raised is the uncertainty of gold price movements that require a simple but effective forecasting
method. The purpose of this research is to provide deeper insight into how SMA can be used in analysing gold
price movements and help investors in making better investment strategies. This research uses the Single Moving
Average (SMA) method to analyse gold price movements, with the SMA calculated based on the average closing
price of gold over 5 and 10 days. Prediction accuracy is evaluated using Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Mean
Squared Error (MSE) comparing SMA calculation results with actual gold prices to assess the effectiveness of this
method. The results show that the SMA method is quite accurate in forecasting short-term gold price trends,
although there is a slight delay in response to sudden price changes. The SMA method can be a simple and effective
forecasting tool for gold price trends, especially for short-term periods.