Food Security Optimization Forecasting Fertilizer Production With Method Weighted Moving Average (WMA)
Keywords:
Food security, Weighted Moving Average, Fertilizer Production Forecasting, MAPE, MADAbstract
This research focuses on optimizing food security through the application of fertilizer production forecasting method at PT Pupuk Iskandar Muda (PIM) using Weighted Moving Average (WMA). Effective food security relies heavily on stable and adequate fertilizer availability, which in turn requires accurate production predictions to ensure efficiency. In this study, historical data of urea and ammonia fertilizer production from January 2019 to December 2023 is used to build a forecasting model that can provide an overview of future production trends. The WMA method was chosen due to its adaptive nature, where greater weight is given to the most recent data, allowing the model to be more responsive to changes and emerging trends. The results showed that for urea production, WMA produced a MAPE value of 1773.8% and MAD of 13,223.2, while for ammonia production, the MAPE was recorded at 3085.5% with MAD of 7,538.5. Total production showed a MAPE of 69.7% with a MAD of 20,568.9, indicating significant fluctuations in production during the period under study. Nevertheless, the WMA method still provides a fairly good prediction and can be used as a reference in future production planning. In addition, the results of this study also provide valuable insights into the production dynamics at PIM, which is critical in supporting the national food security strategy. This research recommends further exploration of other more advanced forecasting methods, such as ARIMA or machine learning techniques, to improve prediction accuracy and better anticipate changes in production patterns.
Keywords: Food security, Weighted Moving Average, Fertilizer Production Forecasting, MAPE, MAD.
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